Pursuit of Truthiness

my gut tells me I know economics

Archive for April 2018

What Time Travel tells us about Doing Good

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If you were transported back in time a few years with all of your current knowledge, what would you do?

You probably have a lot of ideas about things you could do differently in your personal life. But, say your goal is to make the world a better place. How could you best use your knowledge from the future to accomplish this?

The first idea that comes to my mind is to think of the biggest disasters of the past few years and how they might be stopped or mitigated. But most of these would be near-impossible for one person prevent even knowing that they would happen. How could I, as a grad student in the US, have prevented the Syrian Civil War? Or prevented various countries from sliding toward illiberalism or dictatorship? Credibly warned people about earthquakes or tsunamis? About the best you could realistically hope for is tipping off authorities about a terrorist attack, and even there you would to remember more about the exact times, places, or perpetrators than most people do and find a way to communicate this credibly (“Hi, 9-1-1? I’m a time traveller and I have some information that you’ll really want to…. hello?”).

The second idea that comes to mind is to accelerate progress by bringing back knowledge of future inventions and discoveries. But again, the problem here is that most people don’t have enough detailed knowledge in their heads to make a difference. CRISPR sounds cool but not only could I not reinvent it myself, I probably couldn’t explain it well enough to speed real biologists along the path to discovery. Even in my own field of economics its hard to think of any real breakthroughs I could bring back.

So, would anything really work? The only thing I’m confident in is the Biff Tannen strategy of turning knowledge into money, and money into influence. Biff’s book of future sports scores would be a great way to cash in. But even barring that, a basic memory of the most successful teams to bet on, companies to invest in (e.g. early Facebook), and out-of-the-blue alternatives like BitCoin would be helpful. A few successful investments give you a bigger capital base for the next ones. Then, you can use the money to try to do good in the world, for instance by giving it to effective charities.

What is the lesson from all this? First, that Dustin Moskovitz is a time traveller. It also makes me wonder about my current strategy of trying to improve the world mainly through research, rather than “earning to give“. The most general lesson, though: we usually think that decision-making is hard because we lack information about the future, and we spend lots of time trying to guess at what the future might look like. But this concern could be overrated. Even having a pretty good idea of what the future looks like doesn’t necessarily mean making decisions or having a big impact will be easy.

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